Multicultural Majority Happening Faster than Predicted
Census 2020 Reveals Non-Hispanic Whites Declined Eight Years Ahead of Predictions
Fairfax, Va. (February 16, 2022) – According to Census 2020 data, America’s demographics are shifting to a multicultural majority faster than anticipated. While 2020 marked the official year that the first full generation of 17 and under was a multicultural majority, the Hispanic Marketing Council (HMC) estimates that this milestone was reached sometime in the middle of the last decade—years ahead of previous predictions. More compellingly, this shift forward means that Americans under 35 could be a multicultural majority as early as next year.
Based on the 2010 Census, it was predicted Americans under 18 would hit the multicultural majority milestone in 2020 at 50.2 percent, but data from Census 2020 reveals the actual number was 52.7 percent. This means the youth population likely became a multicultural majority around 2015, according to the HMC, with the next group of under 35 potentially reaching this milestone in 2023 and the under-50 segment in 2028, several years ahead of 2010 Census data predictions.
“What was unexpected about Census 2020 is that the non-Hispanic white population declined eight years ahead of what the Census had predicted in 2010,” said HMC Research Chair Nancy Tellet. “If non-Hispanic whites are declining faster than anticipated, that means multicultural projections must shift forward.”
As the non-Hispanic white population declines, its age becomes a bigger factor. The most common age among non-Hispanic whites in U.S. is 58, according to Pew Research, more than double that of racial and ethnic minorities. In addition, there were fewer white births in 2010-2019, an uptick in non-age-related deaths and slower non-Hispanic white immigration to usher in a new era of Multicultural America.
If a significant percentage of the U.S. population is multicultural and the multicultural majority is already a reality for those 19 and under in 2022 (aged up from 17 and under in 2020), then marketers need to revise their definition of what constitutes the “mass market.” In addition, proper investment levels must be in line with the enormous opportunity multicultural marketing represents. In fact, only two to five percent of budgets are allocated to multicultural marketing with Hispanic agencies receiving a mere fraction of what its non-specialized agencies receive, despite Hispanics alone representing 20 percent of the population.
“This is a big wake-up call for marketers who need to put multicultural insights at the core of their marketing strategies. The time is now to invest in in-culture experts and put multicultural marketing at the core of all marketing strategies for those marketing to anyone under the age of 35,” added Tellet.
About HMC: Founded in 1996 as the Association of Hispanic Advertising Agencies, the Hispanic Marketing Council is the national trade organization of all marketing, communications, and media firms with trusted Hispanic expertise.